Facts have proved that in the context of the slowdown of the world economy, faced with the two sides of the developed countries pushing for "re-industrialization" and the late-developing countries in the traditional labor-intensive industries, the progress of China's export upgrading is still further highlighted. Concerns about the decline in the competitiveness of China's export industry are unfounded. Intensifying efforts to expand markets in developing countries and regions is a new hope.
Mei Xinyu
As one of the biggest winners of economic globalization since the 1990s, China has been accustomed to the high growth of foreign trade for many years. In the past 20 years, in 15 years, China’s exports have increased by double digits, and in four years, exports have increased by more than 30%. In the past eight years, exports have increased by between 20% and 30%. In this context, the “double down” situation of import and export in January this year was particularly eye-catching: the total value of imports and exports was US$272.6 billion, down 7.8% year-on-year; of which exports were US$149.94 billion, down 0.5%; imports were US$122.66 billion, down 15.3. %. Since China is currently the world's most trade-dependent country, this "double-down" situation has invisibly added a few "basis" to the "Chinese economic hard landing theory."
Needless to say, the external environment of China's foreign trade is quite severe at present, and the global environment with a slowdown in the world economy is difficult to fundamentally change. It is also being attacked by developed countries in the "re-industrialization" and the two countries' traditional labor-intensive industries trying to catch up. However, the complete industrial system that China has experienced in more than 60 years is really vulnerable to international competition. Is China’s world factory status so fragile? Careful analysis, the answer is no.
First of all, the "double down" of imports and exports in January this year is the product of the "Spring Festival effect." Because this year's Spring Festival holiday is in January, there are only 17 working days in the month, 4 working days less than the same period of last year. In this way, according to international practice, combined with China's actual situation, using the seasonal adjustment method to eliminate the influence of the Spring Festival effect, China will enter in January. The year-on-year growth rates of exports, exports and imports were 6.2%, 10.3% and 1.5% respectively.
Further analysis of China's major export commodity categories in the month, we can find that China's export competitiveness is still quite strong, even in the high-cost era, the most traditional labor-intensive products are no exception.
It is true that the Chinese industry is irreversibly entering the era of high costs. The price competitiveness of China's traditional labor-intensive industries is increasingly shaken, and competition from some developing countries such as Vietnam and India is becoming increasingly aggressive. According to statistics recently released by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam’s exports to the US surged by 21.3% from 2010 to US$16.93 billion, of which textile exports were US$6.88 billion, up 12.5% year-on-year; footwear exports were US$1.91 billion, up 35.5 year-on-year. %; timber and wood products exports 1.44 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.1%; aquatic products exports 1.16 billion US dollars, an increase of 21%. In contrast, China’s exports to the United States increased by 14.5% last year, which is 6.8 percentage points lower than Vietnam’s exports to the United States. Today, Vietnam has replaced China as the largest processing and export base for Nike shoes, and some Western multinational companies have moved some of their production environment back to their home countries. However, in January of this year, China’s traditional large-scale labor-intensive merchandise exports remained relatively stable, with garment exports increasing by 3.5%; textile exports falling by 6.8%; footwear exports falling by 1.3%; furniture exports falling by 2%; and plastics exports by 5.4%; Exports fell by 7%; toy exports increased by 4%; the above seven traditional labor-intensive goods accounted for 22.4% of China's total exports during the same period. It can be seen that the rising cost is not enough to fundamentally shake the export competitiveness of China's traditional labor-intensive industries.
As China is gradually surpassing the stage of relying solely on price competitiveness, it is increasingly relying on the advantages of human resources, public service efficiency, infrastructure, and industrial support. In addition, China can also rely on domestic industry transfer to digest a considerable part. The rising cost pressure, so even in a long time span, the export competitiveness of China's traditional labor-intensive industries can still be maintained. China is a big country with extremely uneven regional development. In recent years, domestic industrial transfer has achieved considerable results. Since the beginning of the recent five-year plan period, the export growth rate of the central and western provinces and autonomous regions has been higher than the national average. According to the statistics of domestic destinations and source of goods, the growth rate of Chongqing's foreign trade has been higher than the national average since 2006. Before 2008, the excess was around 9 percentage points. In 2010, the national foreign trade increased by 34.7%, and Chongqing increased by 53.2%. 18.5 percentage points; in 2011, the national foreign trade increased by 22.5%, and the growth rate of Chongqing was as high as 135.1%, of which the export growth rate was as high as 164.9%. In January this year, while some foreign provinces and cities saw a year-on-year decline in foreign trade, exports from the central and western regions continued to grow rapidly. Among them, the export growth rates of provinces, cities such as Yunnan, Henan, Anhui and Anhui were 1.1 times, 1.1 times, 19.6% and 23.5% respectively. . As for the geographical disadvantage of the internal migration export industry compared with the coastal areas of India, Vietnam and other late-developing countries, relying on the advantages of transportation infrastructure and relying on the efficiency improvement brought by customs clearance procedures can also offset a considerable part. I believe that the central region of China can seize the opportunity of this industrial transfer.
It is reassuring that even in the “double down” situation in January, the progress of China’s export upgrades has been further highlighted. The trade pattern is shifting to a more efficient general trade pattern, while general trade in exports is growing. Processing trade declined. In terms of export commodity structure, exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 0.1% in January, accounting for 56.4% of the total export value in the same period; exports of electrical and electronic products fell by 3.5%; exports of machinery and equipment increased by 3.5%. In terms of trade patterns, China’s general trade exports increased by 2.6% in January; imports fell by 12.5%; in the same period, processing trade exports fell by 4%; imports fell by 19.9%.
This shows that it is not necessary to worry too much about the decline in the competitiveness of China's export industry. In the face of the reality of the slowdown in the traditional export market, in addition to continuing to promote the upgrading of export products, we can also increase efforts to expand the markets of developing countries and regions. Last year, China’s exports to the EU, the United States, Canada and Japan accounted for 45.0% of China’s total exports in the same year; if it was added to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, it accounted for 59.1% of the total exports of the year. Although many of the exports to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region are re-exports to developing countries and regions, it is not accurate to include all exports of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region into exports to developed countries and regions. However, the above data is sufficient to show that developed countries and regions are exporting in mainland China. The importance of it. However, the ensuing sovereign debt crisis is jeopardizing the ability of the above regions to absorb China's export growth, and it is imperative to increase efforts to expand markets in developing countries and regions. If the market outside the above-mentioned traditional market accounts for 5 percentage points of China's export trade, according to last year's export volume, it is more than 90 billion US dollars of exports, and exports to emerging market economies are mostly in general trade. Our export enterprises can play a lot of roles. Considering that the growth performance of emerging market economies in the past 10 years is significantly better than that of developed countries and regions, the share of emerging and developing economies in the global real GDP in 2010 has reached 47.7%, and it is entirely successful to expand the efforts to expand emerging markets. Hope.
(The author is a researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce)
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